015 tools
The Judgment
Playbook.
Short thinking tools for the moment a business case gets difficult. Read one in four minutes, then put a visible move into your answer.
Start with the part of your reasoning that is weakest.
A method is useful only when it changes the decision on the page. Choose a dimension, make one move, and return to the case.
027 tools
Evidence
037 tools
Alternatives
0413 tools
Uncertainty
056 tools
Commitment
Methods to start with.
Each page gives you a short explanation, a step-by-step protocol and the original sources.
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Clarity test
Turn a broad business problem into a decision another person could verify.
framing
Outside view
Start with what usually happens in comparable situations, then adjust for this one.
evidenceuncertainty
Inversion
Ask how to guarantee failure, then remove those conditions from the plan.
alternativesuncertainty
Pre-mortem
Assume the decision already failed and work backward while prevention is still possible.
uncertaintycommitment
Red team
Give a protected opponent the job of breaking the plan rather than polishing it.
alternativesuncertainty
Competing hypotheses
Compare multiple explanations by trying to disprove them, not by collecting support for a favourite.
evidencealternativesuncertainty
Second-order thinking
Follow the decision past its obvious effect by repeatedly asking: and then what?
alternativesuncertainty
Steel-man
State the strongest opposing case so well that its advocate would recognise it.
alternativescommitment
Two-way / one-way door
Match decision speed and evidence depth to how costly the choice is to reverse.
uncertaintycommitment
Fragility audit
Find the dependencies that can destroy the plan before trying to predict the exact shock.
uncertainty
Commander’s intent
State purpose, key tasks, and end state clearly enough for action when the plan breaks.
framingcommitment
Decision journal
Record the call, reasoning, assumptions, prediction, and review date before outcome rewrites memory.
commitmentuncertainty
Kind vs wicked learning environments
Distinguish feedback that teaches from feedback that rewards luck, delay, or hindsight.
evidenceuncertainty
Decision Quality: six links
Treat decision quality as a chain whose weakest link limits the whole recommendation.
framingevidencealternativesuncertaintycommitment
Falsifiability
Turn a confident claim into one that names the evidence capable of proving it wrong.
evidenceuncertainty
Opportunity cost & trade-offs
Make the recommendation name what it gives up, not only what it hopes to gain.
framingalternatives
Survivorship bias
Look for the invisible failures before copying the visible winner’s playbook.
evidenceuncertainty
Map is not the territory
Treat metrics, models, and case narratives as useful representations, never the business itself.
framingevidence
Apply one method to a real case.
Pick a method, revise one decision memo, then use the next review to see what improved.
Return to a real case